2025 import cargo levels projected to sink as tariffs soar

WASHINGTON – President Trump’s latest tariff escalation is now expected to thwack 2025 import levels, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report.

The preliminary forecast, issued today by National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, assesses the impact that the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain. The majority of the tariffs took effect at midnight on Aug. 7 and represent the country’s highest tariff rates since the Great Depression, according to CNN.

Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is tentatively forecast to end this year 5.6% below 2024’s volume.

“The hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates.

U.S. ports are likely to see a downturn in trade volumes by late September, particularly because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand, he added. “Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.”

The report calculates imports in Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent. During the first half of 2025, import cargo volume totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year over year. Volume forecast for the remainder of the year would bring 2025 to a total of 24.1 million TEU, down 5.6% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for July, but Global Port Tracker projected that the month surged to 2.3 million TEU as retailers brought in merchandise ahead 90-day tariff pause coming to a close. That would be the highest number in a year, up 17.3% from June and down just 0.5% year over year.

Fewer imports will eventually result in lower inventories at the nation’s stores, said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s VP for supply chain and Customs.

“Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business,” he added. “We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them.”