Consumers raise concerns over high prices, but overall confidence still up in November
Consumers have an increased optimism for current business and labor market conditions and that’s driving overall confidence up.
WASHINGTON – Consumer are feeling positive – at least according to the latest Consumer Confidence report from the Conference Board. Consumers have an increased optimism for current business and labor market conditions and that’s driving overall confidence up.
For the month of November, the Consumer Confidence Index hit 111.7, up 2.1 points from October. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of labor market and business conditions – increased nearly 5 points to 140.9.
“Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market. Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years. Meanwhile, consumers’ expectations about future business conditions were unchanged and they were slightly less positive about future income.”
The Expectations Index – the short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – currently stands at 92.3, a small 0.4-point increase from last month but still firmly above the 80-point mark that typically signals a looming recession.
“The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months fell further in November and was the lowest since we first asked the question in July 2022,” Peterson added.
Consumer concerns over inflation reached its lowest mark since March 2020; average 12-month inflation expectations declined from 5.3 percent to 4.9 percent. Reference to inflation and prices also declined in the write-in responses, with much of the focus shifting onto the U.S. election.
While inflation concerns are down, elevated prices are still top of mind. In a special added question about concerns and hopes for 2025, consumers across all income and age groups overwhelmingly selected higher prices as their top concern and lower prices as their top wish.
Here are a few more details from this month’s report:
Present Situation
Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions improved in November.
- 21.3 percent of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 22.0 percent in October.
- 15.3 percent said business conditions were “bad,” down from 16.7 percent.
Consumers’ appraisals of the labor market improved in November.
- 33.4 percent of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 34.1 percent in October.
- 15.2 percent of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 17.6 percent.
Expectations Six Months Hence
Consumers remained optimistic about the business conditions outlook in November.
- 23.5 percent of consumers expected business conditions to improve, up from 21.1 percent in October.
- 15.2 percent expected business conditions to worsen, up from 13.0 percent.
Consumers’ assessments of the labor market outlook continued to improve.
- 21.7 percent of consumers expected more jobs to be available, up from 18.4 percent in October.
- 17.8 percent anticipated fewer jobs, up from 16.2 percent.
Consumers’ assessments of their income prospects were slightly down in November.
- 19.0 percent of consumers expected their incomes to increase, down from 19.5 percent in October.
- 11.8 percent expected their incomes to decrease, unchanged from October.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted for the Conference Board by consumer insight company Toluna and is drawn from an online sample of more than 36 million consumers.
See also:
What's Your Reaction?
