Latest Global Port Tracker outlines why import slump likely to continue

WASHINGTON – There are 3 key reasons why import cargo volume is likely to fall further and remain down, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

Peak season came early this year. Most holiday merchandise is already on hand since retailers pulled forward receipts to mitigate against additional tariff hikes.

More tariffs are about to kick in. President Trump’s most recent tariffs – 25% on upholstered furniture produced outside the U.S. and the same rate on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities — are set to take effect next week.

The China pause is poised to lapse. A major tariff increase on imports from China that was delayed by 90 days in August is scheduled to go into effect Nov. 10. Unless the U.S. and China reach a deal or Trump announces another extension, U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports could surge to 145%.

Given those factors, the Global Port Track’s expects the monthly import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports to fall below the 2 million TEU mark for the remainder of the year.

The country’s volatile tariff policy could result in unpredictable shifts in import volume over the next four to six months., according to Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett.

“Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent,” he added.

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.32 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in August. That was down 2.9% from July’s 2.39 million TEU — the peak month for the year — but up 0.1% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for September, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8% year over year.

October is forecast at 1.97 million TEU, down 12.3% year over year, and November at 1.75 million TEU, down 19.2%. December is forecast at 1.72 million TEU, down 19.4% year over year for the slowest month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.

While the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, the year-over-year percentage declines are both because of this year’s early peak season and because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes.

The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is forecast at 24.79 million TEU, down 2.9% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

January 2026 is forecast at 1.87 million TEU, down 16.1% year over year, and February 2026 is forecast at 1.77 million TEU, down 12.8%.