Container rates, a new ocean alliance and other supply disruptors ahead for 2025
Spot ocean container rates fell slightly this week, continuing their descent as 2024 comes to a close. But there are several looming issues that could change that trajectory heading into 2025.
NEW YORK – Spot ocean container rates fell slightly this week, continuing their descent as 2024 comes to a close. But there are several looming issues that could change that trajectory heading into 2025.
First is a new ocean carrier alliance set to take place in February. It’s helping keep rates lower for now, analysts say, but could lead to lots of schedule changes and blank sailings in the second quarter of next year.
“Price competition on the transpacific route remains very keen with none of the main carriers willing to give up market share ahead of the alliance reshuffle in February even as newcomers such as Hede, SeaLead and TS Lines continue to pile into the market,” wrote ocean container watcher LinerLytica in a blog post. “Non-alliance carriers including Zim and Wan Hai have also increased their exposure on the route.”
Still, there are still expectations for rates to increase. One reason for that is the potential East Coast port strike.
“January is likely to bring a variety of new challenges, beginning with a potential ILA labor strike that would close all U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports once again,” said Rachel Shames, vice president of procurement for customs broker CV International. “There have been no positive labor negotiation developments in recent weeks, and it appears the ILA is preparing for a work stoppage effective Jan. 15. There is no clear indication of how long a labor strike would last, as it depends on further negotiations, potential presidential action, etc., but many believe the duration could be longer than the three-day strike in October.”
Another uncertainty is tariffs.
“January 20 will bring the U.S. presidential inauguration, and more uncertainty around tariffs on major U.S. trading partners, as well as potential retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports,” Shames continued. “It is still unclear whether significant tariff changes will materialize, or if they are simply a starting point for negotiations.”
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