Imports could surge ahead of Trump tariffs, potential port strike

WASHINGTON – Facing the prospect of tariff hikes by President-elect Donald Trump and a possible East Coast/Gulf Coast port strike, import volumes at major container ports could be higher than previously expected.

During his successful 2024 campaign run, Trump proposed dialing up tariffs on goods from China to as much as 60% and imposing up to a 20% levy on almost all other foreign goods coming to the U.S.

The threat of another port strike following the 3-day East Coast shutdown in October also has importers scrambling, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“That has retailers spending extra to bring in cargo early or continue shifting it to the West Coast to avoid any potential disruptions, much like they did earlier this year,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s VP for supply chain and customs policy.

“And we’re hearing that some merchants will also move up shipments to avoid the costly tariff increases expected after Donald Trump returns to the White House,” he continued. “Neither of these developments is good for retailers, their customers or the economy.”

An NRF study released this week found that tariff increases proposed by Trump could drive up consumer prices by as much as $78 billion a year. There is also concern among freight brokers about the impact on ocean container rates.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the potential for a January strike can be seen in the continuing increases in U.S. imports from Asia, “which have not fallen away as expected.” He also noted that concerns about tariffs aren’t confined to the U.S.

“We are witnessing elections around the world where discontent is leading to inward-looking policies that threaten trade with the almost certain potential for increasing tariffs,” Hackett said. “In the United States, this is particularly true with the election of Donald Trump but it is not much different in Europe, with the EU calling for tariffs to be applied to a growing number of products from China.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.29 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in September, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have yet to report final data. That was down 1.3% from August but up 12.8% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported October’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.13 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. November is forecast at 2.15 million TEU, up 13.6% year over year, and December at 1.99 million TEU, up 6.1%. That would bring 2024 to 25.3 million TEU, up 13.6% from 2023.

The numbers have not yet been revised to reflect this week’s election results but do take the potential port strike into consideration. October was previously forecast at 2.12 million TEU, November at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, and the total for 2024 was previously forecast at 24.9 million TEU.

January 2025 is forecast at 2.01 million TEU, up 2.5% year over year; February at 1.77 million TEU, down 9.3% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories, and March at 2.01 million TEU, up 4.4%.

See also:

Ocean container rates rise as concern grows over future tariffs, January port strike

Retailers, the NRF speak out against Trump tariff proposals