Retail Monitor: Pull-forward retail events paid off for home retailers

WASHINGTON – A flurry of super-sales promotions in July boosted monthly retail sales after sluggish spending in June.

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 1.45% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 5.89% unadjusted year over year in July, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 0.33% and an increase of 3.19% year over year in June.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was up 1.55% month over month in July and up 5.93% year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.32% month over month and an increase of 3.36% year over year in June.

Sales at furniture and home furnishings stores were also positive, though not as robust as the overall total. Sales were up 0.98% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.53% year over year unadjusted. That marked an improvement over June, when furniture and home furnishings stores fell 0.24% month over month seasonally adjusted and declined 0.1% year over year unadjusted.

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Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually. The data is collected and powered by Affinity Solutions and also by the National Retail Federation (NRF). By comparison, monthly data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce is based on surveys conducted by the Census Bureau.

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay noted that efforts to pull purchases forward before tariffs proved successful, shoppers won’t be able to dodge the impacts forever.

“We may be seeing growing inflationary impacts from tariffs since recent data shows price increases in commodity goods, particularly non-durables,” he said. “Even with weaker job growth than many expected, consumers still have the ability to spend on household priorities as wages are growing above the rate of inflation.”

July sales were up in all but one out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by digital products, sporting goods stores and general merchandise stores, and were also up in all but one category on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were up 1.35% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 25.01% year over year unadjusted.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 2.36% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 9.99% year over year unadjusted.
• General merchandise stores were up 2.04% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.94% year over year unadjusted.
• Clothing and accessories stores were up 1.75% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.73% year over year unadjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 1.43% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 5.42% year over year unadjusted.
• Health and personal care stores were up 1.69% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 4.44% year over year unadjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.51% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 2.11% year over year unadjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.98% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.53% year over year unadjusted.
• Building and garden supply stores were up 1.32% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 4.11% year over year unadjusted.