Imports expected to lose steam following tariff-related summer surge
WASHINGTON – After hitting a near-record level over the summer season, cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is forecast to steadily decline at least through January 2026 amid rising tariffs.
The Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF)and Hackett Associates estimated increasing rates of import declines over the next several months. The volumes are measured in Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent:
September is forecast at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8% year over year.
October at 1.95 million TEU, down 13.2%.
November at 1.74 million TEU, down 19.7%.
December is forecast at 1.7 million TEU, down 20.1% year over year – which would make for the slowest month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.
January 2026 is forecast at 1.8 million TEU, down 19.1% year over year.
While the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, the year-over-year percentage declines are both because of this year’s early peak season related to pull-forward traffic and because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns about port strikes.
“Tariffs have had a significant impact on trade,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.”
President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs on a number of countries took effect in early August. Although a federal appeals court later ruled against Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose the tariffs, it left the levies in place while the ruling is under appeal to the Supreme Court.
In addition, Trump delayed an increase in tariffs on China Nov. 10 so trade negotiations could continue. He also announced an additional 25% tariff on India that took effect near the end of August, bringing the additional tariff rate to 50%.
“Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF‘s VP for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for August, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.28 million TEU, down 1.7% year over year but higher than that 2.2 million TEU expected before the postponement of China tariffs and the new tariff on India.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year over year. The full year is forecast at 24.7 million TEU, down 3.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
