Holiday shopping numbers exceed NRF expectations
The five-day Thanksgiving holiday weekend saw a near record turnout of shoppers, according to the National Retail Federation.
WASHINGTON — Nearly as many holiday shoppers turned out for the five-day Thanksgiving weekend as did last year, according to figures tracked by the National Retail Federation.
An estimated 197 million consumers shopped between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, which was behind last year’s record 200.4 million shoppers, but well ahead of NRF estimates of 183.4 million.
Matthew Shay, president and CEO, called the turnout a solid foundation heading into the holidays, with consumers showing “resilience and strength” as they took a “more thoughtful and deliberate” approach to spending.
“Thanksgiving weekend retains its prominence among holiday spending events and continues to play a significant role in the holiday season for both consumers and retailers,” said Shay. “Even with this year’s shortened shopping period and the multitude early sales promotions from retailers, this past weekend exceeded expectations in terms of the sheer volume of shoppers.”
Black Friday was the most popular day with 81.7 million consumers shopping in-store on Black Friday and 87.3 million doing so online. Saturday was the second-highest day for in-store shopping, turning out 61.1 million consumers, while Cyber Monday attracted 64.4 million consumers.
The spending forecast between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, said Shay, is for consumers to spend between $979 billion and $989 billion—a 2.5% to 3.5% increase over 2023. On average, consumers spent $235 on gifts over the five days, which was up $8 from 2023.
In contrast to some other reports on holiday spending trends, NRF’s survey showed an increase in in-store shopping over the long weekend, with 126 million consumers doing so this year vs. 121.4 million last year. Online, meanwhile, was down by NRF estimates, with 124.3 million opting for e-commerce this year vs. 134.2 million in 2023.
Shay explained the difference by noting NRF and its partner Prosper Insights & Analytics are surveying individuals about their specific shopping behaviors while some other sources are basing their holiday shopping data on dollar figures. NRF’s data shows online shoppers tend to be higher-income individuals who may be spending more via that channel, said Shay.
Value shopping continued to be a theme among many consumers, with 38% taking advantage of sales and promotions in the week leading up to Thanksgiving, said Phil Risk, vice president-strategy at Prosper.
The top channels for shoppers were department stores (42%), online (42%), grocery stores (40%), clothing and accessories shops (37%) and discounters (32%), said Risk, where consumers purchased clothing/accessories (49%), toys (31%) gift cards (27%), food and candy (23%) and personal care items (23%).
When asked about the specter of tariffs, Shay said, there is a high level of awareness about tariffs, but consumers are primarily focused on gift buying at this point. That behavior may change heading into the new year, he added, noting there’s still so much that is unknown on the tariff discussion.
NRF and Prosper surveyed 3,055 adult consumers between Nov. 27 and Dec. 1.
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