NRF forecasts holiday sales growth in line with the 2024 trend
The National Retail Federation issued its holiday outlook, sharing its expectation of steady growth in the closing months of this year.
WASHINGTON – The National Retail Federation this week issued its holiday outlook for the period between Nov. 1-Dec. 31.
The organization expects seasonal holiday spending to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. That equates to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in total holiday spending in November and December, compared with $955.6 billion during the same timeframe last year.
“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
The holiday forecast falls in line with NRF’s forecast that annual sales for 2024 will be between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
A primary contributor of overall retail sales growth is expected from online shopping. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 8% and 9% to a total of between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion. This figure is up from $273.3 billion last year. By comparison, last year non-store sales rose 10.7% over 2022.
NRF’s holiday forecast is based on economic modeling using various key economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases. NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail.
The 2024 holiday shopping season between Thanksgiving and Christmas will be six days shorter, totaling 26 days. Additional contributing factors this year could include the economic impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton. NRF noted that even though the 2024 U.S. presidential election will take place during the holiday season, “it is nearly impossible to measure its impact on current or future spending.”
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said the association remains optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year. “Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously,” he said.
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