Tariffs remain top of mind for most holiday shoppers: NRF survey

What’s the story?

• Average consumer holiday spend projected at $890.49, down 1.3% from last year
• 63% plan to shop during Thanksgiving weekend, up from 59%
• 85% expect higher prices, but spending remains strong
• Online shopping leads as a destination at 55%

WASHINGTON – Consumers plan to make some adjustments to when they shop for holiday this year – but not a significant change in how much they intend to spend.

Consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items, according to the National Retail Federation‘s (NRF) annual consumer survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. That amount is just 1.3% less than last year’s record spend of $901.99 and ranks as the second-highest in the survey’s 23-year history.

Shoppers will spend generously even through 85% expect to find higher prices because of tariffs. But they will make some changes in how they time their purchases. The survey found that 42% will begin browsing and buying in October, nearly two-thirds (63%) plan to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their holiday shopping, up from 59% last year.

More consumers said they will seek out sale events this year, according to Katherine Culle, NRF’s VP of industry and consumer insights.

“Time and again, Americans prioritize spending on loved ones for holidays despite economic uncertainty,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said.

Out of the total, $627.93 will go to gifts for family and friends. The remaining $262.56 will be used on seasonal items like food or candy, decorations and greeting cards.

“Despite consumers’ economic concerns, the winter holidays remain an important occasion to celebrate with loved ones,” said Phil Rist, Prosper EVP of strategy. “This is particularly true for those families with children, who are expected to increase their gift budgets by more than $30 on average.”

Online continues to be the top holiday shopping destination, with 55% planning to make purchases digitally. That is followed by grocery stores (46%), department stores (44%) and discount stores (42%).

According to the survey, the top gifts consumers would like to receive include gift cards (50%), clothing or accessories (46%), books and other media (27%), personal care or beauty items (23%) and electronics (22%).

The survey asked 8,247 adult consumers about their holiday shopping plans. It was conducted Oct. 1-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.