Spot rates hold steady as Hormuz flows improve, but Red Sea risks rise
Global container freight rates held steady this week, with higher trans-Pacific pricing offset by declines on Asia-Europe routes, while maritime conditions in the Middle East remained mixed as more traffic moved through the Strait of Hormuz but risks intensified around the Red Sea.
The Drewry World Container Index remained unchanged at $4,476 per 40-foot container for the second consecutive week. Drewry said the flat headline reading masked diverging trends across major east-west trade lanes.
On the trans-Pacific, rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 2 percent to $7,352 per 40-foot container, while Shanghai-to-New York rates increased 1 percent to $9,726.
Drewry said eight blank sailings have been announced for next week, up from seven this week, indicating tighter available capacity. With demand easing but carriers continuing to manage supply, Drewry expects freight rates to remain stable next week.
Asia-Europe Rates Move Lower
Rates continued to soften on Asia-Europe routes. Shanghai-to-Genoa rates fell 3 percent to $4,216 per 40-foot container, while Shanghai-to-Rotterdam rates declined 2 percent to $3,997.
Three blank sailings have been announced for next week, up from one this week. Congestion at the Port of Shanghai also remained elevated but improved, with average vessel waiting times falling from 94 hours in week 35 to 64 hours in week 36.
Drewry said weak demand, persistent congestion in Asia and continued carrier capacity management should keep rates broadly stable next week. The selective return of services to the Suez Canal is also restoring effective capacity on Asia-Europe routes, putting downward pressure on freight pricing.
The Panama Canal Authority, meanwhile, has postponed a planned 0.15-meter draft reduction for Neopanamax vessels, although transit restrictions remain in place.
Hormuz Flows Improve, But Risks Shift
Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have improved in recent weeks, but the wider regional shipping environment remains volatile.
The United States has succeeded in loosening Iran’s grip on the strait while sharply curtailing Iranian oil exports, according to reporting from The Associated Press. Iran had effectively closed the waterway early in the war, disrupting a route that normally handles about one-fifth of global traded oil and gas.
Kpler data cited by AP showed Iranian oil exports falling from 1.85 million barrels per day last spring to about 255,000 barrels per day in August. At the same time, non-Iranian oil exports through the region climbed to 8.4 million barrels per day in September, with alternative routes bringing the total to 10.8 million. Prewar non-Iranian exports were about 14 million barrels per day.
The increased flow has depended on a substantial U.S. military presence in the strait, and Iran has continued attacking ships in the area.
Risks are also increasing farther west. AP reported that Iran-backed Houthi forces have stepped up attacks on Saudi oil facilities and shipping near the Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal. Saudi oil flows through the strait toward Asia fell from roughly 3.4 million barrels per day in June to 128,000 in August before recovering to about 700,000 barrels per day in September, according to Kpler.
